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Recrudescent wave of pandemic A/H1N1 influenza in Mexico, winter 2011-2012: Age shift and severity

We have documented a substantial and ongoing increase in the number of ARI hospitalizations during the period December 2011-February 2012 and an older age distribution of laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza hospitalizations and deaths, relative to 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic patterns. The gradual change in the age distribution of A/H1N1 infections in the post-pandemic period is reminiscent of historical pandemics and indicates either a gradual drift in the A/H1N1 virus, and/or a build-up of immunity among younger populations.

 

 

Chowell's work lies at the interface of epidemiology, mathematics, modeling and statistics. For the last few years, his emphasis has been on the application of mathematical and statistical modeling to estimate epidemiological parameters and test public health policy.  His latest work has focused on characterizing the epidemiology of the novel swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV) pandemic as well as past influenza pandemics particularly the 1918 influenza pandemic in the Americas.

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Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology

Chowell, G.; Hyman, J.M.; Bettencourt, L.M.A.; Castillo-Chavez, C. (Eds.)

This book is intended as a primary resource for graduate students and researchers working in the field of infectious disease epidemiology. This collection of contributions presents deterministic and stochastic approaches for epidemic modelling and statistical inference of epidemiological parameters including the real time assessment of the transmission potential of infectious diseases, issues related to the sensitivity of model assumptions, the use of historical archives as valuable sources of epidemiological information, modeling of vaccination programs and relapse, statistical challenges in bio surveillance, approaches for the spatial and temporal analysis of disease time series, quantification of parameter uncertainty and methodologies for sensitivity analysis.