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  1. Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts G. Chowell. Infectious Disease Modeling 2017; 2 (issue 3) 379-398.

  2. Forecasting the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom. D.W. Shanafelt, J. Glyn, M. Lima, C. Perrings, G. Chowell. EcoHealth 2017.

  3. Excess mortality patterns during 1918-1921 influenza pandemic in the state of Arizona, USA. S. Dahal, M. Jenner, L. Dinh, K. Mizumoto, C. Viboud, G. Chowell. Annals of Epidemiology 2017.

  4. Asymptomatic Transmission and the Dynamics of Zika Infection. Moghadas SM, Shoukat A, Espindola AL, Pereira RS, Abdirizak F, Laskowski M, Viboud C, Chowell G. Sci Rep. 2017 Jul 19;7(1):5829.

  5. Perspectives on model forecasts of the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa: lessons and the way forward. Chowell G, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Merler S, Vespignani A. BMC Med. 2017 Mar 1;15(1):42.

  6. Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Virus in Humans, Domesticated Animals, Ticks, and Mosquitoes, Shaanxi Province, China. Tian H, Yu P, Chowell G, Li S, Wei J, Tian H, Lv W, Han Z, Yang J, Huang S, Zhou S, Brownstein JS, Wang J, Xu B. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2017 Jun;96(6):1346-1349.

  7. Forecasting Epidemics Through Nonparametric Estimation of Time-Dependent Transmission Rates Using the SEIR Model. Smirnova A, deCamp L, Chowell G. Bull Math Biol. 2017 May 2. doi: 10.1007/s11538-017-0284-3.

  8. Is it growing exponentially fast? -- Impact of assuming exponential growth for characterizing and forecasting epidemics with initial near-exponential growth dynamics. Chowell G, Viboud C. Infect Dis Model. 2016 Oct;1(1):71-78.

  9. Model estimates of the burden of outpatient visits attributable to influenza in the United States. Matias G, Haguinet F, Lustig RL, Edelman L, Chowell G, Taylor RJ. BMC Infect Dis. 2016 Nov 7;16(1):641.

  10. Estimating the subcritical transmissibility of the Zika outbreak in the State of Florida, USA, 2016. Dinh L, Chowell G, Mizumoto K, Nishiura H. Theor Biol Med Model. 2016 Nov 9;13(1):20.

  11. Exploring optimal control strategies in seasonally varying flu-like epidemics. Lee S, Chowell G. J Theor Biol. 2016;412:36-47.

  12. Severe mortality impact of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Chile. Chowell G, Simonsen L, Fuentes R, Flores J, Miller MA, Viboud C. Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2016.

  13. Predicting the international spread of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Nah K, Otsuki S, Chowell G, Nishiura H. BMC Infect Dis. 2016 Jul 22;16:356. doi: 10.1186/s12879-016-1675-z.

  14. Pandemic influenza and socioeconomic disparities: Lessons from 1918 Chicago. Chowell G, Viboud C. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Nov 29;113(48):13557-13559.

  15. Using phenomenological models for forecasting the 2015 Ebola challenge. Pell B, Kuang Y, Viboud C, Chowell G. Epidemics. 2016 Nov 19. pii: S1755-4365(16)30043-3.

  16. Quantifying the fitness of antiviral-resistant influenza strains. Chowell G, Viboud C. Lancet Infect Dis. 2016 Nov 30. pii: S1473-3099(16)30522-9.

  17. Characterizing the reproduction number of epidemics with early sub-exponential growth dynamics. G. Chowell, C. Viboud, L. Simonsen, S. Moghadas. J. R. Soc. Interface. 2016;13(123). pii: 20160659.

  18. A dynamic compartmental model for the Middle East respiratory syndrome outbreak in the Republic of Korea: A retrospective analysis on control interventions and superspreading events. Lee J, Chowell G, Jung E. J. Theor. Biol. 2016 Nov 7;408:118-26. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.08.009. Epub 2016 Aug 10.

  19. Mortality and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. Cobos AJ, Nelson CG, Jehn M, Viboud C, Chowell G. BMC Infect Dis. 2016 Aug 11;16(1):405. doi: 10.1186/s12879-016-1716-7.

  20. Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review Chowell G, Sattenspiel L, Bansal S, Viboud C. Phys Life Rev. 2016 Jul 11. pii: S1571-0645(16)30064-1. doi: 10.1016/j.plrev.2016.07.005.

  21. Using Phenomenological Models to Characterize Transmissibility and Forecast Patterns and Final Burden of Zika Epidemics. Chowell G, Hincapie-Palacio D, Ospina J, Pell B, Tariq A, Dahal S, Moghadas S, Smirnova A, Simonsen L, Viboud C. PLoS Curr. 2016 May 31;8

  22. Modeling ring vaccination strategies for Ebola control. G. Chowell, M. Kiskowski (2016). In: Chowell G, Hyman JM, editors. Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases: Springer.

  23. Patch Models of EVD Transmission Dynamics Pell B, Baez J, Phan T, Gao D, Chowell G, Y. Kuang (2016) In: Chowell G, Hyman JM, editors. Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases: Springer.

  24. Evaluating the Number of Sickbeds During Ebola Epidemics Using Optimal Control Theory. E. Jung, J. Lee, G. Chowell (2016). In: Chowell G, Hyman JM, editors. Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases: Springer.

  25. Prevention and Control of Zika as a Mosquito-Borne and Sexually Transmitted Disease: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis. Gao D, Lou Y, He D, Porco TC, Kuang Y, Chowell G, Ruan S. Sci Rep. 6:28070 (2016)

  26. Global Mortality Impact of the 1957-1959 Influenza Pandemic. Viboud C, Simonsen L, Fuentes R, Flores J, Miller MA, Chowell G. J Infect Dis. 213(5):738-45 (2016)

  27. A generalized-growth model to characterize the early ascending phase of infectious disease outbreaks C. Viboud, L. Simonsen, G. Chowell. Epidemics 15, 27-37 (2016)

  28. Whooping cough dynamics in Chile (1932-2010): disease temporal fluctuations across a north-south gradient. Lima M, Estay SA, Fuentes R, Rubilar P, Broutin H, Chowell G. BMC Infect Dis. 2015 Dec 30;15(1):590. doi: 10.1186/s12879-015-1292-2.

  29. Modelling the spatial-temporal progression of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Chile. Burger R, Chowell G, Mulet P, Villada LM. Math Biosci Eng. 2016 Feb 1;13(1):43-65. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2016.13.43.

  30. Impact of School Cycles and Environmental Forcing on the Timing of Pandemic Influenza Activity in Mexican States, May-December 2009. Tamerius J, Viboud C, Shaman J, Chowell G. PLoS Comput Biol. 2015 Aug 20;11(8):e1004337. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004337. eCollection 2015 Aug.

  31. Real-time characterization of risks of death associated with the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in the Republic of Korea, 2015. Mizumoto K, Endo A, Chowell G, Miyamatsu Y, Saitoh M, Nishiura H. BMC Med. 2015 Sep 30;13:228. doi: 10.1186/s12916-015-0468-3.

  32. Modeling household and community transmission of Ebola virus disease: epidemic growth, spatial dynamics and insights for epidemic control. Kiskowski M, Chowell G. Virulence. 2015 Aug 20:1-11.

  33. Characterizing Ebola Transmission Patterns based on Internet News Reports. Cleaton JC, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Hurtado AM, Chowell G. Clin Infect Dis. 2015 Sep 3. pii: civ748.

  34. Transmission characteristics of MERS and SARS in the healthcare setting: a comparative study. Chowell G, Abdirizak F, Lee S, Lee J, Jung E, Nishiura H, Viboud C. BMC Med. 2015 Sep 3;13(1):210. doi: 10.1186/s12916-015-0450-0.

  35. Estimating the risk of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) death during the course of the outbreak in the Republic of Korea, 2015. Mizumoto K, Saitoh M, Chowell G, Miyamatsu Y, Nishiura H. Int J Infect Dis. 2015 Aug 11;39:7-9. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2015.08.005.

  36. Multiple Trigger Points for Quantifying Heat-Health Impacts: New Evidence from a Hot Climate. Petitti DB, Hondula DM, Yang S, Harlan SL, Chowell G. Environ Health Perspect. 2015 Jul 28. [Epub ahead of print]

  37. Assessing the risk of observing multiple generations of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) cases given an imported case. H. Nishiura, Y. Miyamatsu, G. Chowell, M. Saitoh. Euro Surveill. 2015 Jul 9;20(27). pii: 21181.

  38. Ebola vaccine trials: a race against the clock. Chowell G, Viboud C. Lancet Infect Dis. 2015 Apr 14. pii: S1473-3099(15)70159-3. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(15)70159-3.

  39. The first human infection with severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus in Shaanxi Province, China. Wei J, Li S, Dong JH, Tian H, Chowell G, Tian HY, Lv W, Han ZQ, Xu B, Yu PB, Wang JJ. Int J Infect Dis. 2015 Feb 24. pii: S1201-9712(15)00051-X. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2015.02.014.

  40. The Western Africa Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Exhibits Both Global Exponential and Local Polynomial Growth Rates. G. Chowell, C. Viboud, J. M. Hyman, L. Simonsen. PLOS Currents Outbreaks. 2015 Jan 21. Edition 1. doi:

  41. Characterizing the Transmission Dynamics and Control of Ebola Virus Disease. G. Chowell, H. Nishiura. PLOS Biology. 2015 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.1002057

  42. Controlling Ebola: key role of Ebola treatment centres. G. Chowell, C. Viboud. Lancet Infect Dis. 2015; 15(2): p139?141

  43. Theoretical perspectives on the infectiousness of Ebola virus disease. H. Nishiura, G. Chowell. Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling. In Press. 2014.

  44. Ebola control: rapid diagnostic testing. Dhillon RS, Srikrishna D, Garry RF, Chowell G. Lancet Infect Dis. 2014 Nov 19. pii: S1473-3099(14)71035-7. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(14)71035-7.

  45. Death Patterns during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Chile. Chowell G, Simonsen L, Flores J, Miller MA, Viboud C. Emerg Infect Dis. 2014 Nov;20(11):1803-11. doi: 10.3201/eid2011.130632.

  46. Intense Seasonal A/H1N1 Influenza in Mexico, Winter 2013-2014. Dávila-Torres J, Chowell G, Borja-Aburto VH, Viboud C, Grajalez-Muñiz C, Miller MA. Arch Med Res. 2014 Nov 13. pii: S0188-4409(14)00228-8. doi: 10.1016/j.arcmed.2014.11.005.

  47. Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease (EVD): A Review G. Chowell, H. Nishiura. BMC Medicine 2014; 12(1):196.

  48. Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria, July to September 2014 Fasina FO, Shittu A, Lazarus D, Tomori O, Simonsen L, Viboud C, Chowell G.Euro Surveill. 2014;19(40):pii=20920.

  49. Merging Economics and Epidemiology to Improve the Prediction and Management of Infectious Disease. Perrings, C., Castillo-Chavez, C., Chowell, G., Daszak, P., Fenichel, E., Finnoff, D., Horan, R., Kilpatrick, A.M., Kinzig, A., Kuminoff, N., Levin, S., Morin, B., Smith, K. & Springborn, M. EcoHealth 2014, DOI: 10.1007/s10393-014-0963-6.

  50. Synthesizing data and models for the spread of MERS-CoV, 2013: key role of index cases and hospital transmission. G. Chowell, S. Blumberg, L. Simonsen, M.A. Miller, C. Viboud. Epidemics 2014; 14:371.

  51. Early transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD), West Africa, March to August 2014 . H. Nishiura, G. Chowell. Euro Surveill. 2014;19(36):pii=20894.

  52. Time-specific ecologic niche models forecast the risk of hemorrhagic Fever with renal syndrome in dongting lake district, china, 2005-2010. Liu HN, Gao LD, Chowell G, Hu SX, Lin XL, Li XJ, Ma GH, Huang R, Yang HS, Tian H, Xiao H. PLoS One. 2014 Sep 3;9(9):e106839.

  53. Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in Spain Chowell G, Erkoreka A, Viboud C, Echeverri-Dávila B.BMC Infect Dis. 2014 Jul 5;14:371.

  54. Rates of influenza-like illness and winter school breaks, Chile, 2004-2010. Chowell G, Towers S, Viboud C, Fuentes R, Sotomayor V. Emerg Infect Dis. 2014 Jul;20(7):1203-7. doi: 10.3201/eid2007.130967

  55. Substantial Morbidity and Mortality Associated with Pandemic A/H1N1 Influenza in Mexico, Winter 2013-2014: Gradual Age Shift and Severity. Dávila J, Chowell G, Borja-Aburto VH, Viboud C, Grajales Muñiz C, Miller M. PLOS Currents Outbreaks. 2014 Mar 26. Edition 1. doi: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.a855a92f19db1d90ca955f5e908d6631.

  56. Heat-Related Deaths in Hot Cities: Estimates of Human Tolerance to High Temperature Thresholds . S. Harlan, G. Chowell, S. Yang, D. B. Petitti, E. J. Morales-Butler, B. L. Ruddell, D. M. Ruddell. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 2014 Mar 20;11(3):3304-26. doi: 10.3390/ijerph110303304.

  57. Assessing the impact of public health interventions on the transmission of pandemic H1N1 influenza a virus aboard a Peruvian navy ship. Vera DM, Hora RA, Murillo A, Wong JF, Torre AJ, Wang D, Boulay D, Hancock K, Katz JM, Ramos M, Loayza L, Quispe J, Reaves EJ, Bausch DG, Chowell G, Montgomery JM. Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2014 Feb 10. doi: 10.1111/irv.12240.

  58. Urban structure and the risk of influenza A (H1N1) outbreaks in municipal districts .Xiao, H., Lin, X., Chowell, G., Huang, C., Gao, L., Chen, B., ... & Yang, H. Chinese Science Bulletin 2014; 1-9.

  59. Global Mortality Estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: A Modeling Study
    Simonsen et al.
    PLOS Medicine 2013, 10:11 e1001558

  60. Transmission potential of influenza A/H7N9, February-May 2013, China
    G. Chowell, L. Simonsen, S. Towers, M. A. Miller, C. Viboud
    BMC Medicine 2013, 11:214

  61. Lessons learned from case fatality risk estimates of 2009 pandemic influenza
    G. Chowell and C. Viboud
    Epidemiology 2013; 24(6):842-844

  62. A Data-Driven Mathematical Model of CA-MRSA Transmission Among Age Groups: Evaluating the Effect of Control Interventions
    X. Wang, S. Panchanathan, G. Chowell
    PLOS Computational Biology 2013

  63. Special issue dedicated to Carlos Castillo-Chavez on his 60th birthday
    G. Chowell, Z. Feng, B. Song
    Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering 2013

  64. Occupation and Environmental Heat-Associated Deaths in Maricopa County, Arizona: A Case-Control Study
    D. B. Petitti, S. Harlan, G. Chowell, D. Ruddell
    PLoS ONE 8(5): e62596.

  65. A Population Based Study of Seasonality of Skin and Soft Tissue Infections: Implications for the Spread of CA-MRSA
    X. Wang, S. Towers, S. Panchanathan, G. Chowell
    PLoS ONE 2013; 8(4): e60872.

  66. Climate change and influenza: the likelihood of early and severe influenza seasons following warmer than average winters.
    Towers S, Chowell G, Hameed R, Jastrebski M, Khan M, Meeks J, Mubayi A, Harris G.
    PLOS Currents Influenza 2013

  67. Skip the Trip: Air travelers’ behavioral responses to pandemic influenza
    E. Fenichel, N. Kuminoff, G. Chowell
    PLoS ONE 2013; 8(3): e58249.

  68. The basic reproduction number R0 and effectiveness of reactive interventions during dengue epidemics: The 2002 dengue outbreak in Easter Island, Chile
    G. Chowell, R. Fuentes, A. Olea, X. Aguilera, H. Nesse, J. M. Hyman
    Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering 2013;

  69. On epidemic growth rates and the estimation of the basic reproduction number
    Fred Brauer, Gerardo Chowell
    Notes on modeling and numerical methods. Computational modeling of biological systems. Morales Vazquez, M.A., Botello Rionda, S (eds.). Publisher: CIMAT, Guanajuato, Mexico

  70. A practical method to target individuals for outbreak detection and control
    Chowell G, Viboud C.
    BMC Med. 2013 Feb 12;11(1):36.

  71. The age distribution of mortality due to influenza: pandemic and peri-pandemic
    Reichert T, Chowell G, McCullers JA.
    BMC Med. 2012 Dec 12;10(1):162.

  72. Modeling rapidly disseminating infectious disease during mass gatherings
    Chowell G, Nishiura H, Viboud C.
    BMC Med. 2012 Dec 7;10(1):159

  73. The influence of climatic conditions on the transmission dynamics of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Chile.
    Chowell G, Towers S, Viboud C, Fuentes R, Sotomayor V, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Lima M, Villarroel C, Chiu M, Villarroel JE, Olea A.
    BMC Infect Dis. 2012 Nov 13;12(1):298. [Epub ahead of print]

  74. Epidemiological Characterization of a Fourth Wave of Pandemic A/H1N1 Influenza in Mexico, Winter 2011-2012: Age Shift and Severity.
    Borja-Aburto VH, Chowell G, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Grajales-Muñiz C, González-Bonilla CR, Diaz-Quiñonez JA, Echevarría-Zuno S.
    Arch Med Res. 2012 Oct 16. pii: S0188-4409(12)00246-9. doi: 10.1016/j.arcmed.2012.09.005.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  75. Toward unbiased assessment of treatment and prevention: modeling household transmission of pandemic influenza.
    Chowell G, Nishiura H.
    BMC Med. 2012 Oct 9;10(1):118.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  76. Impact of weekday social contact patterns on the modeling of influenza transmission, and determination of the influenza latent period.
    Towers S, Chowell G.
    J Theor Biol. 2012 Aug 1;312C:87-95.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  77. Risk factors for mortality among 2009 A/H1N1 influenza hospitalizations in Maricopa County, Arizona, April 2009 to March 2010.
    Chowell G, Ayala A, Berisha V, Viboud C, Schumacher M.
    Comput Math Methods Med. 2012;2012:914196. doi: 10.1155/2012/914196. Epub 2012 Jul 15.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  78. Epidemiological characteristics and underlying risk factors for mortality during the autumn 2009 pandemic wave in Mexico.
    Chowell G, Echevarría-Zuno S, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Fernández-Gárate I, González-Bonilla C, Borja-Aburto VH.
    PLoS One. 2012;7(7):e41069. Epub 2012 Jul 16.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  79. Impact of antiviral treatment and hospital admission delay on risk of death associated with 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza in Mexico.
    Chowell G, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Echevarría-Zuno S, González-León M, Borja Aburto VH.
    BMC Infect Dis. 2012 Apr 20;12:97.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  80. Recrudescent wave of pandemic A/H1N1 influenza in Mexico, winter 2011-2012: Age shift and severity.
    Chowell G, Echevarría-Zuno S, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Grajales Muñiz C, Rascón Pacheco RA, González León M, Borja Aburto VH
    Version 2. PLoS Curr. 2012 Feb 24 [revised 2012 Mar 26];4:RRN1306.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  81. The 1918-19 influenza pandemic in Boyacá, Colombia.
    Chowell G, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Acuna-Soto R, Díaz JM, Martínez-Martín AF.
    Emerg Infect Dis. 2012 Jan;18(1):48-56. doi: 10.3201/eid1801.101969.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  82. Scales of perception: public awareness of regional and neighborhood climates
    D Ruddell, SL Harlan, S Grossman-Clarke, G Chowell
    Climatic change 111 (3), 581-607
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  83. Modeling optimal age-specific vaccination strategies against pandemic influenza.
    Lee S, Golinski M, Chowell G.
    Bull Math Biol. 2012 Apr;74(4):958-80. doi: 10.1007/s11538-011-9704-y. Epub 2011 Dec 7.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  84. Influenza-related mortality trends in Japanese and American seniors: evidence for the indirect mortality benefits of vaccinating schoolchildren.
    Charu V, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Sturm-Ramirez K, Shinjoh M, Chowell G, Miller M, Sugaya N.
    PLoS One. 2011;6(11):e26282. Epub 2011 Nov 7.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  85. Mortality burden of the A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico: a comparison of deaths and years of life lost to seasonal influenza.
    Charu V, Chowell G, Palacio Mejia LS, Echevarría-Zuno S, Borja-Aburto VH, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Viboud C.
    Clin Infect Dis. 2011 Nov;53(10):985-93. Epub 2011 Oct 5.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  86. Measuring the benefits of school closure interventions to mitigate influenza.
    Chowell G, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Miller MA.
    Expert Rev Respir Med. 2011 Oct;5(5):597-9.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  87. Influenza and pneumonia mortality in 66 large cities in the United States in years surrounding the 1918 pandemic.
    Acuna-Soto R, Viboud C, Chowell G.
    PLoS One. 2011;6(8):e23467. Epub 2011 Aug 19.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  88. The 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Peru.
    Chowell G, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Hurtado J, Soto G, Vargas R, Guzman MA, Ulloa M, Munayco CV.
    Vaccine. 2011 Jul 22;29 Suppl 2:B21-6.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  89. The need for interdisciplinary studies of historic pandemics.
    Simonsen L, Viboud C, Chowell G, Andreasen V, Olson DR, Parekh V, Mølbak K, Miller MA.
    Vaccine. 2011 Jul 22;29 Suppl 2:B1-5.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  90. Spatial and temporal characteristics of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Peru.
    Chowell G, Viboud C, Munayco CV, Gómez J, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Tamerius J, Fiestas V, Halsey ES, Laguna-Torres VA.
    PLoS One. 2011;6(6):e21287. Epub 2011 Jun 21.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  91. The influence of geographic and climate factors on the timing of dengue epidemics in Perú, 1994-2008.
    Chowell G, Cazelles B, Broutin H, Munayco CV.
    BMC Infect Dis. 2011 Jun 8;11:164.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  92. Characterizing the epidemiology of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico.
    Chowell G, Echevarría-Zuno S, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Tamerius J, Miller MA, Borja-Aburto VH.
    PLoS Med. 2011 May;8(5):e1000436. Epub 2011 May 24.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  93. Did modeling overestimate the transmission potential of pandemic (H1N1-2009)? Sample size estimation for post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies.
    Nishiura H, Chowell G, Castillo-Chavez C.
    PLoS One. 2011 Mar 24;6(3):e17908.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  94. Adaptive human behavior in epidemiological models.
    Fenichel EP, Castillo-Chavez C, Ceddia MG, Chowell G, Parra PA, Hickling GJ, Holloway G, Horan R, Morin B, Perrings C, Springborn M, Velazquez L, Villalobos C.
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Apr 12;108(15):6306-11. Epub 2011 Mar 28.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  95. A perspective on the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Mexico.
    Acuña-Soto R, Castañeda-Davila L, Chowell G.
    Math Biosci Eng. 2011 Jan;8(1):223-38. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2011.8.223.

  96. A deterministic methodology for estimation of parameters in dynamic Markov chain models
    Journal of Biological Systems, Vol. 19, No. 1 (2011) 71–100
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  97. Changes in the viral distribution pattern after the appearance of the novel influenza A H1N1 (pH1N1) virus in influenza-like illness patients in Peru.
    Laguna-Torres VA, Gómez J, Aguilar PV, Ampuero JS, Munayco C, Ocaña V, Pérez J, Gamero ME, Arrasco JC, Paz I, Chávez E, Cruz R, Chavez J, Mendocilla S, Gomez E, Antigoni J, Gonzalez S, Tejada C, Chowell G, Kochel TJ; Peru Influenza working group.
    PLoS One. 2010 Jul 27;5(7):e11719.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  98. Rubella metapopulation dynamics and importance of spatial coupling to the risk of congenital rubella syndrome in Peru.
    Metcalf CJ, Munayco CV, Chowell G, Grenfell BT, Bjørnstad ON.
    J R Soc Interface. 2011 Mar 6;8(56):369-76. Epub 2010 Jul 21.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  99. Mortality patterns associated with the 1918 influenza pandemic in Mexico: evidence for a spring herald wave and lack of preexisting immunity in older populations.
    Chowell G, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Acuna-Soto R
    J Infect Dis. 2010 Aug 15;202(4):567-75.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  100. Optimal control for pandemic influenza: the role of limited antiviral treatment and isolation.
    Lee S, Chowell G, Castillo-Chávez C.
    J Theor Biol. 2010 Jul 21;265(2):136-50. Epub 2010 Apr 9.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  101. The reproduction number of seasonal influenza epidemics in Brazil, 1996-2006.
    Chowell G, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Miller M, Alonso WJ.
    Proc Biol Sci. 2010 Jun 22;277(1689):1857-66. Epub 2010 Feb 11.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  102. Does Glycosylation as a modifier of Original Antigenic Sin explain the case age distribution and unusual toxicity in pandemic novel H1N1 influenza?
    Reichert T, Chowell G, Nishiura H, Christensen RA, McCullers JA.
    BMC Infect Dis. 2010 Jan 7;10:5.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  103. Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A (H1N1) 2009.
    Nishiura H, Chowell G, Safan M, Castillo-Chavez C.
    Theor Biol Med Model. 2010 Jan 7;7:1.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  104. A discrete events delay differential system model for transmission of Vancomycin-resistant enterococcus (VRE) in hospitals
    A Ortiz, HT Banks, C Castillo-Chavez, G Chowell, X Wang
    Journal of Inverse and Ill-posed Problems 18 (7), 787-821
    September 19, 2010
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  105. Adaptive vaccination strategies to mitigate pandemic influenza: Mexico as a case study.
    Chowell G, Viboud C, Wang X, Bertozzi S, Miller M.
    PLoS Curr. 2009 Aug 17;1:RRN1004.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  106. Pandemic influenza in a southern hemisphere setting: the experience in Peru from May to September, 2009.
    Gomez J, Munayco C, Arrasco J, Suarez L, Laguna-Torres V, Aguilar P, Chowell G, Kochel T.
    Euro Surveill. 2009 Oct 22;14(42). pii: 19371.

  107. Transmission dynamics and underreporting of Kala-azar in the Indian state of Bihar.
    Mubayi A, Castillo-Chavez C, Chowell G, Kribs-Zaleta C, Ali Siddiqui N, Kumar N, Das P.
    J Theor Biol. 2010 Jan 7;262(1):177-85. Epub 2009 Sep 19.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  108. Qualitative analysis of the level of cross-protection between epidemic waves of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic.
    Rios-Doria D, Chowell G.
    J Theor Biol. 2009 Dec 21;261(4):584-92. Epub 2009 Aug 22.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  109. Epidemiological and transmissibility analysis of influenza A(H1N1)v in a southern hemisphere setting: Peru.
    Munayco CV, Gomez J, Laguna-Torres VA, Arrasco J, Kochel TJ, Fiestas V, Garcia J, Perez J, Torres I, Condori F, Nishiura H, Chowell G.
    Euro Surveill. 2009 Aug 13;14(32). pii: 19299.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  110. Lessons from Nigeria: the role of roads in the geo-temporal progression of avian influenza (H5N1) virus.
    Rivas AL, Chowell G, Schwager SJ, Fasina FO, Hoogesteijn AL, Smith SD, Bisschop SP, Anderson KL, Hyman JM.
    Epidemiol Infect. 2010 Feb;138(2):192-8. Epub 2009 Aug 5.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  111. The ideal reporting interval for an epidemic to objectively interpret the epidemiological time course.
    Nishiura H, Chowell G, Heesterbeek H, Wallinga J.
    J R Soc Interface. 2010 Feb 6;7(43):297-307. Epub 2009 Jul 1.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  112. Severe respiratory disease concurrent with the circulation of H1N1 influenza.
    Chowell G, Bertozzi SM, Colchero MA, Lopez-Gatell H, Alpuche-Aranda C, Hernandez M, Miller MA.
    N Engl J Med. 2009 Aug 13;361(7):674-9. Epub 2009 Jun 29.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  113. The spatial and temporal patterns of falciparum and vivax malaria in Perú: 1994-2006.
    Chowell G, Munayco CV, Escalante AA, McKenzie FE.
    Malar J. 2009 Jun 27;8:142.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  114. Transmission potential of the new influenza A(H1N1) virus and its age-specificity in Japan.
    Nishiura H, Castillo-Chavez C, Safan M, Chowell G.
    Euro Surveill. 2009 Jun 4;14(22). pii: 19227.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  115. The reproduction number R(t) in structured and nonstructured populations.
    Burr T, Chowell G.
    Math Biosci Eng. 2009 Apr;6(2):239-59.
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  116. Optimal control of influenza pandemics: the role of antiviral treatment and isolation
    S Lee, G Chowell, C Castillo-Chávez
    Journal of Theoretical Biology 265, 136-150
    Risk Factors for Mortality

  117. Spatial and temporal dynamics of rubella in Peru, 1997–2006: geographic patterns, age at infection and estimation of transmissibility
    D Rios-Doria, G Chowell, C Munayco-Escate, A Witthembury, C Castillo-Chavez
    Mathematical and statistical estimation approaches in epidemiology, 325-341

  118. The basic reproduction number of infectious diseases: computation and estimation using compartmental epidemic models
    G Chowell, F Brauer
    Mathematical and statistical estimation approaches in epidemiology, 1-30

  119. The effective reproduction number as a prelude to statistical estimation of time-dependent epidemic trends
    H Nishiura, G Chowell
    Mathematical and statistical estimation approaches in epidemiology, 103-121

  120. Mathematical assessment of Canada's pandemic influenza preparedness plan.
    Gumel AB, Nuño M, Chowell G.
    Can J Infect Dis Med Microbiol. 2008 Mar;19(2):185-92.

  121. Rurality and pandemic influenza: geographic heterogeneity in the risks of infection and death in Kanagawa, Japan (1918-1919).
    Nishiura H, Chowell G.
    N Z Med J. 2008 Oct 17;121(1284):18-27.

  122. Protecting residential care facilities from pandemic influenza.
    Nuño M, Reichert TA, Chowell G, Gumel AB.
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2008 Jul 29;105(30):10625-30. Epub 2008 Jul 22.

  123. Household and community transmission of the Asian influenza A (H2N2) and influenza B viruses in 1957 and 1961.
    Nishiura H, Chowell G.
    Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health. 2007 Nov;38(6):1075-83.

  124. Spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue fever in Peru: 1994-2006.
    Chowell G, Torre CA, Munayco-Escate C, Suárez-Ognio L, López-Cruz R, Hyman JM, Castillo-Chavez C.
    Epidemiol Infect. 2008 Dec;136(12):1667-77. Epub 2008 Apr 8.

  125. Receiver operating characteristic-based assessment of a serological test used to detect Johne's disease in Israeli dairy herds.
    Chaffer M, Rivas AL, Elad D, Koren O, Garazi S, Chowell G, Schwager SJ.
    Can J Vet Res. 2008 Jan;72(1):18-26.

  126. The 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in England and Wales: spatial patterns in transmissibility and mortality impact.
    Chowell G, Bettencourt LM, Johnson N, Alonso WJ, Viboud C.
    Proc Biol Sci. 2008 Mar 7;275(1634):501-9.

  127. Seasonal influenza in the United States, France, and Australia: transmission and prospects for control.
    Chowell G, Miller MA, Viboud C.
    Epidemiol Infect. 2008 Jun;136(6):852-64. Epub 2007 Jul 18.

  128. Estimation of the reproduction number of dengue fever from spatial epidemic data.
    Chowell G, Diaz-Dueñas P, Miller JC, Alcazar-Velazco A, Hyman JM, Fenimore PW, Castillo-Chavez C
    Mathematical Biosciences 2007;208(2):571-89.

  129. Signatures of non-homogeneous mixing in disease outbreaks
    TL Burr, G Chowell
    Mathematical and Computer Modelling 48 (1), 122-140

  130. Quantifying the transmission potential of pandemic influenza
    G Chowell, H Nishiura
    Physics of Life Reviews 5 (1), 50-77

  131. Optimization of epidemiologic interventions: Evaluation of spatial and non-spatial methods that identify Johne's disease-infecte subpopulations targeted for intervention
    AL Rivas, M Chaffer, G Chowell, D Elad, O Koren, SD Smith, SJ Schwager
    Israel Journal of Veterinary Medicine 63 (3), 59

  132. Estimating the reproduction number from the initial phase of the Spanish flu pandemic waves in Geneva, Switzerland.
    Chowell G, Ammon CE, Hengartner NW, Hyman JM.
    Math Biosci Eng. 2007 Jul;4(3):457-70.

  133. Spatial distribution of acaricide profiles (Boophilus microplus strains susceptible or resistant to acaricides) in southeastern Mexico.
    Rodríguez-Vivas RI, Rivas AL, Chowell G, Fragoso SH, Rosario CR, García Z, Smith SD, Williams JJ, Schwager SJ
    Vet Parasitol. 2007 May 15;146(1-2):158-69. Epub 2007 Mar 8.

  134. Comparative estimation of the reproduction number for pandemic influenza from daily case notification data.
    Chowell G, Nishiura H, Bettencourt LM.
    J R Soc Interface. 2007 Feb 22;4(12):155-66.

  135. Assessing the role of basic control measures, antivirals and vaccine in curtailing pandemic influenza: scenarios for the US, UK and the Netherlands.
    Nuño M, Chowell G, Gumel AB.
    J R Soc Interface. 2007 Jun 22;4(14):505-21.

  136. On the role of cross-immunity and vaccines on the survival of less fit flu-strains.
    Nuño M, Chowell G, Wang X, Castillo-Chavez C.
    Theor Popul Biol. 2007 Feb;71(1):20-9. Epub 2006 Jul 11.

  137. Clinical diagnosis delays and epidemiology of dengue fever during the 2002 outbreak in Colima, Mexico.
    G Chowell, P Diaz-Duenas, D Chowell, S Hews, G Ceja-Espiritu, J M Hyman, C ...
    New Delhi: WHO Regional Office for South-East Asia

  138. Outbreak Detection Algorithms-Towards Real Time Epidemiology: Data Assimilation, Modeling and Anomaly Detection of Health Surveillance Data Streams
    LMA Bettencourt, RM Ribeiro, G Chowell, T Lant, C Castillo-Chavez
    Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 79-90

  139. Observation and model error effects on parameter estimates in susceptible-infected-recovered epidemic model
    TL Burr, G Chowell
    Far East Journal of Theoretical Statistics 19 (2), 163

  140. Estimation of the reproductive number of the Spanish flu epidemic in Geneva, Switzerland.
    Chowell G, Ammon CE, Hengartner NW, Hyman JM.
    Vaccine. 2006 Nov 10;24(44-46):6747-50. Epub 2006 Jun 5.

  141. Climate-based descriptive models of dengue fever: the 2002 epidemic in Colima, Mexico.
    Chowell G, Sanchez F.
    J Environ Health. 2006 Jun;68(10):40-4, 55.

  142. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of scorpionism in Colima, Mexico (2000-2001).
    Chowell G, Díaz-Dueñas P, Bustos-Saldaña R, Mireles AA, Fet V.
    Toxicon. 2006 Jun 1;47(7):753-8. Epub 2006 Mar 30.

  143. Human-mediated foot-and-mouth disease epidemic dispersal: disease and vector clusters.
    Rivas AL, Kunsberg B, Chowell G, Smith SD, Hyman JM, Schwager SJ.
    J Vet Med B Infect Dis Vet Public Health. 2006 Feb;53(1):1-10.

  144. Identification of case clusters and counties with high infective connectivity in the 2001 epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in Uruguay.
    Chowell G, Rivas AL, Smith SD, Hyman JM.
    Am J Vet Res. 2006 Jan;67(1):102-13.

  145. Transmission dynamics of the great influenza pandemic of 1918 in Geneva, Switzerland: Assessing the effects of hypothetical interventions.
    Chowell G, Ammon CE, Hengartner NW, Hyman JM.
    J Theor Biol. 2006 Jul 21;241(2):193-204. Epub 2006 Jan 4.

  146. The role of spatial mixing in the spread of foot-and-mouth disease.
    Chowell G, Rivas AL, Hengartner NW, Hyman JM, Castillo-Chavez C.
    Prev Vet Med. 2006 Mar 16;73(4):297-314. Epub 2005 Nov 11.

  147. Modelling the transmission dynamics of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis: application to the 2003 outbreak in Mexico.
    Chowell G, Shim E, Brauer F, Diaz-Dueñas P, Hyman JM, Castillo-Chavez C.
    Stat Med. 2006 Jun 15;25(11):1840-57.

  148. Promoting Research and Minority Participation via Undergraduate Research in the Mathematical Sciences. MTBI/SUMS-Arizona State University
    C Castillo-Chavez, CW Castillo-Garsow, G Chowell, D Murillo, M Pshaenich
    Proceedings of the Conference on Promoting Undergraduate Research in ...

  149. Critical response to post-outbreak vaccination against foot-and-mouth disease
    G Chowell, AL Rivas, NW Hengartner, JM Hyman, C Castillo-Chavez
    Contemporary Mathematics 410, 73

  150. Mathematical applications associated with the deliberate release of infectious agents
    G Chowell, A Cintrón-Arias, S Del Valle, F Sánchez, B Song, JM Hyman, HW ...
    Contemporary Mathematics 410, 51

  151. Worst-case scenarios and epidemics
    G Chowell, C Castillo-Chavez
    Bioterrorism: mathematical modeling applications in homeland security 28

  152. Observation and model error effects on parameter estimates in susceptible-infected-recovered epidemiological models
    T Burr, G Chowell
    Far East Journal of Theoretical Statistics 19 (2), 163-183

  153. Predicting scorpion sting incidence in an endemic region using climatological variables.
    Chowell G, Hyman JM, Díaz-Dueñas P, Hengartner NW.
    Int J Environ Health Res. 2005 Dec;15(6):425-35.

  154. The dynamics of pulmonary tuberculosis in Colima, Mexico (1999-2002).
    Chowell G, Diaz-Dueñas P, Chowell D.
    Scand J Infect Dis. 2005;37(11-12):858-62.

  155. The role of vaccination in the control of sars.
    Gjorgjieva J, Smith K, Chowell G, Sanchez F, Snyder J, Castillo-Chavez C.
    Math Biosci Eng. 2005 Oct;2(4):753-69.

  156. Pediatric electrocardiograph abnormalities following Centruroides limpidus tecomanus scorpion envenomation.
    Diaz P, Chowell G, Ceja G, D'Auria TC, Lloyd RC, Castillo-Chavez C.
    Toxicon. 2005 Jan;45(1):27-31.

  157. Learning from the past to prepare for the future: Modeling the impact of hypothetical interventions during the great influenza pandemic of 1918
    G Chowell, NW Hengartner, C Ammon, M Hyman
    CHANCE 21 (2), 55-60

  158. Characterization of an outbreak of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis in Mexico, 2003
    G Chowell, C Castillo-Chavez, P Diaz-Duenas
    Digital Journal of Ophthalmology 11 (1)

  159. Model parameters and outbreak control for SARS.
    Chowell G, Castillo-Chavez C, Fenimore PW, Kribs-Zaleta CM, Arriola L, Hyman JM.
    Emerg Infect Dis. 2004 Jul;10(7):1258-63.

  160. The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the effects of public health measures: the cases of Congo and Uganda.
    Chowell G, Hengartner NW, Castillo-Chavez C, Fenimore PW, Hyman JM.
    J Theor Biol. 2004 Jul 7;229(1):119-26.

  161. Scaling laws for the movement of people between locations in a large city.
    Chowell G, Hyman JM, Eubank S, Castillo-Chavez C.
    Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2003 Dec;68(6 Pt 2):066102. Epub 2003 Dec 15.

  162. SARS outbreaks in Ontario, Hong Kong and Singapore: the role of diagnosis and isolation as a control mechanism.
    Chowell G, Fenimore PW, Castillo-Garsow MA, Castillo-Chavez C.
    J Theor Biol. 2003 Sep 7;224(1):1-8.